100 members winning pants/jacket

I'm with you on that. I thought I won but then it was 20% off coupon that everyone got. Still won't stop me from browsing and looking and potentially buying! hahah

Where do you find the code...?
No jacket/pants for me :[

yeah lost again, no worries though!

can i get a price adjustment? I just bought pants yesterday and then boom today we get a 20% off coupon...

omg i got excited when i saw another note in my inbox only to find out he was just rexplaining where the coupon code was. 

haha youguys are getting faked out just like I.

yep. not winning stinks but it's fun thinking that you could win and it keeps you from being bored. ya know?

hahaha they should have just done this for April 1st... im sure we all woulda fell for that....
or will they.....................

Originally posted by duchsauce Haha, we all got got!(Entourage anyone?)  I thought I won too when I saw that PM waiting for me.

YOU GOT GOT! YOU GOT GOT!

after reading the e-mail that was sent out, i knew that a 20% off coupon would be there. but i was also hoping that i'd be one of the lucky fuks who gets a free jacket or pair of pants. and i'm not... so i guess i got got too.

it's all good tho. i still love sierra.
100 winning members while they're celebrating their 100,000 membership?

that's only 1 winning member every 1000 members.

ahh too much math.

me 2 i thought i won 2 when i saw 2 messages!!! bummer but the coupon is pretty cool!!!

I love all of the non-active members complaining that no active people won a free item... seriously, if your 3 posts of all-time have been related to winning items... why worry about it?

lol well any of you can make me a winner buy buying something for me. That will be appreciated just as much too 

i didn't win either.  oh well!

get a price adjustment man

i dont think they do price adjustments for coupons. i tried asking already

Originally posted by shagwag3n wow, your mathematical and statistical knowledge is the phail

wrong? ah..well i'm not claiming to be a math or stats person..i've been out of school too long. please enlighten me, what was the chance of winning a whole setup?

still, shouldn't be getting upset over a jacket when sierra's been kind enough to giveaway whole setups. I still think the chances of winning a setup was better than the jacket/pant...

Originally posted by fostpaint 1/1000. Technically, if the same 1,000 people were logged in all 5 days, then your chances were: M: 1/1,000 Tu: 1/999 W: 1/998 Th: 1/997 F: 1/996 But it wasn't exactly 1,000 people each day, so chances are obviously a little different. Short version: by not winning day one, your chances of winning day 2 do not statistically improve. /nerd

that wasn't exactly the question. What's the chance of winning once by the end of the week?

Assuming there were 1000 people logged on & the same people logged on everday...by the end of the week your chances would be 'roughly' 5/1000, no? which is the same as 1/200, no?

have i gone mad? of course it's not exact because there wasn't exactly 1000 people & not the same everday, & no i didn't subtract the winners...but i was trying to make the point that you had a much greater chance at winning a full snowboard setup than a jacket..

but now this math problem is driving me nuts!! especially after being called phail! Please explain!

Ok so, one way to look at this is...what are the chances that you win nothing at all?

Let's split this into two scenarios
1. you don't win anything at all
2. You win something

So the chances of you winning something is 1 - P(win nothing)

Let's just assume your chances everyday are the same at 1/1000 (it's a small difference from 1/999) That means your chance of NOT winning something is 999/1000

Since each day is an independent event, we can just multiply each day together.
999/1000 * 999/1000 * 999/1000 * 999/1000 * 999/1000 = 0.999^5 ~= 0.995 (fifth power) This is your chances that you won't win anything at all.

So your chances of winning anything in those 5 days is 1 - 0.995 or approx 0.005
It isn't exactly 1/200 because I rounded it off (very slightly lower, ~0.00499001...) It's very close to just multiplying by 5 because the probability is so low in the first place.

Do these same calculations for a winning chance of 1/10 and you'll see that it is definitely not 1/2 chance of winning. (of course if it's without replacement you're even more likely to win)

/not a math nerd, someone want to double check what I said?

Originally posted by quiwi Ok so, one way to look at this is...what are the chances that you win nothing at all? Let's split this into two scenarios 1. you don't win anything at all 2. You win something So the chances of you winning something is 1 - P(win nothing) Let's just assume your chances everyday are the same at 1/1000 (it's a small difference from 1/999) That means your chance of NOT winning something is 999/1000 Since each day is an independent event, we can just multiply each day together. 999/1000 * 999/1000 * 999/1000 * 999/1000 * 999/1000 = 0.999^5 ~= 0.995 (fifth power) This is your chances that you won't win anything at all. So your chances of winning anything in those 5 days is 1 - 0.995 or approx 0.005 It isn't exactly 1/200 because I rounded it off (very slightly lower, ~0.00499001...) It's very close to just multiplying by 5 because the probability is so low in the first place. Do these same calculations for a winning chance of 1/10 and you'll see that it is definitely not 1/2 chance of winning. (of course if it's without replacement you're even more likely to win) /not a math nerd, someone want to double check what I said?

THAT kid is the $hi+

I'm in the same boat as all of you! Still not a winner BLAH!

Not a winner, but still a member